Long time leads...

definitely add to the volatility in price, as (perceived or real) shortages last for much longer than they would in a more flexible production environment. Equally, if new output hits a downturn - which is what largely happened with a lot of the new natural gas capacity in the United States in 2008/9, the new capacity which needs to keep producing despite not covering full cost - due to asset depreciation and time limits on leases - can add to the extension of periods at lower prices.

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